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Amazon deforestation is on the decline, while U.S. ethanol production increases

The theory of "indirect land use change" maintains that if an acre of corn in the United States is used for ethanol production, an acre elsewhere in the world will be converted to agriculture to make up for it -- and much of the focus has been on the sensitive ecosystem of the Amazon.

Is ethanol responsible for the deforestation of the Amazon?  No, and that statement is backed by recent data out of Brazil.  

Brazil's government has announced that annual deforestation rates have fallen to their lowest level in more than 20 years. This year's rate is almost half of that of the previous 12 months, and the lowest since records began to be kept in 1988.  Read the full Christian Science Monitor article here.  This is good news for the conservation of this precious resource. 

It must also be noted that this drastic decline in Amazon deforestation is occurring at the same time that ethanol production in the U.S. is growing to record levels.  Even after weathering difficult financial conditions, the U.S. is on pace to produce an all-time record amount of ethanol this year for use as clean-burning transportation fuel. 

This chart helps us view the relationship between deforestation and U.S. ethanol production:

From 2004 to 2008, U.S. ethanol production has nearly tripled, from 3.4 billion gallons annually to more than 9 billion gallons.  During this same time, deforestation has made just as steep a move -- in the opposite direction.

Biofuel critics' claims that ethanol is responsible for these kinds of international land use changes are simply not corroborated by on-the-ground evidence -- quite the opposite, actually.  We agree that the environmental impact of all types of energy sources needs to be considered, but we insist that these policy decisions be based on sound science.  Let's give ethanol some credit for the positives it has brought to our country economy, environment, and energy security, instead of making charges against it that are simply not valid.

The direct effects of oil, strikingly depicted on screen and in photographs

In the midst of so much talk of the "indirect effects" attributed to biofuels, there are two new opportunities to view the real impact of petroleum -- on screen and in photographs.

"Crude: The Real Price of Oil" is a film by Joe Berlinger that tells the story of the indigenous people of Educador vs. U.S. oil giant Chevron.  The plaintiffs claim that Texaco (merged with Chevron in 2001) spent three decades contaminating one of the most biodiverse regions on Earth, poisoning the water, air, land, and people.  Please take a few minutes to view the movie trailer here www.crudethemovie.com and then visit www.ethanolcollective.com to share your thoughts on the discussion board.

Renowned photographer Edward Burtynsky is currently displaying his work "Oil" at the Corcoran Gallery of Art in Washington, DC.  From 1997 through 2009 he traveled internationally to chronicle the production, distribution, and use of oil.  The photographs are striking and well worth your time to view them online at this site: http://www.corcoran.org/exhibitions/press_burtynsky/.

Sound science and a fair playing field

The American Coalition for Ethanol recently submitted official comments to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on the proposed rule for the Renewable Fuels Standard.  This "RFS2" has been a point of concern, specifically the EPA's inclusion of the controversial "international land use change" (ILUC) theory in the proposed rule.  It's also concerning that EPA appointed Tim Searchinger, the lawyer who is the very architect of the ILUC theory, a seat on the peer-review panel.  These so-called "indirect effects" are new, untested, unreliable, and controversial computer-generated predictions that are, at this time, being selectively applied only to corn ethanol. 

In our comments, ACE asked that EPA insist on greater scientific consensus and real-world data before moving forward to apply these penalties to biofuels in the final rule.  And if EPA insists on applying indirect effects, these effects should be applied to all fuels – not just ethanol.  This includes undertaking a complete lifecycle assessment of the indirect emissions association with petroleum.  Sound science and fair playing field is all we’re asking. 

Brazil's sugarcane industry rep speaks at ACE ethanol conference

Joel Velasco, Chief Representative in North America for Brazil's sugarcane industry association (UNICA), told ACE conference attendees that the U.S. and Brazil agree on 99 percent of things.  "We believe in the power of farmers and agriculture to solve many of these problems," Velasco said. 

Forty-six percent of Brazil's total energy use is considered renewable, he noted, and sugarcane makes up about 16 percent of the country's entire energy matrix.  Thanks to co-generation at the mills from burning the bagasse, sugarcane makes 3 percent of the country's electricity demand - and that may climb to 10 percent in the near future.  They don't have distillers grain to sell, but they have electricity to make, Velasco said.

Half a billion tons of cane were grown last harvest, making 7 billion gallons of ethanol.  This equals 31 billion metric tons of sugar.  Brazil's sugar output for food is up by 20 percent, responding mainly to India's shortfall in sugar production.  Velasco noted that India has shunned biofuels and now is short on sugar for food.

"There is no correlation between deforestation - it exists in Brazil, and it's a tragedy - but it has nothing to do with growing cane in Brazil or growing corn here in the U.S.," Velasco said.

In Brazil, the "gasoline" is actually E25.  Ethanol competes with gasoline and keeps gas prices in check.  "Gasoline in Brazil is now the alternative fuel," he said.

"The flex-fuel car has been very, very successful in Brazil," Velasco said, noting that General Motors does not offer a single car in Brazil that's not flex fuel today.  The Honda Civic can run on pure ethanol and meet all emissions standards in Brazil, the U.S., and in Europe.

Velasco says that Brazil supports the move to E15 in the U.S.  In UNICA's official comments to the U.S. EPA, they noted that throughout all of Brazil's many fuel changes over the years with different blends of ethanol, there were very, very few incidents with engines.  "We believe the technology is all there," he said, noting that if they could do it with 1970s automotive technology, it's probably ok today. 

Experts debate methods for calculating international land use change

At the American Coalition for Ethanol's national conference last week in Milwaukee, experts in the field of studying international land use change debated the different methods behind the calculations.  Wally Tyner, professor and energy economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, and Tom Darlington, President of Air Improvement Resource (AIR) Inc. addressed the conference's general session on "Theory vs. Science: The Role of Biofuels in Low Carbon Policies and Calculating Direct and Indirect Emissions."

Tyner noted that prior to 2007, the general consensus was that corn ethanol had a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but then in the Energy Independence & Security Act of 2007 came the requirement that indirect land use change be considered in estimating total GHG impacts.  He stated that there are a number of issues involved in developing a lifecycle model to quantify these international changes, including how to define the boundaries, deciding what to include and not include, and working with uncertain numbers. "How uncertain are these numbers?  And they are uncertain, believe me," Tyner said.

He also mentioned the E10 blend wall, calling it "the biggest issue" facing the ethanol industry.  "It's a total block to cellulosic ethanol," Tyner said. "Cellulosic ethanol will never appear without getting over the blend wall."

Tyner believes that, based on Purdue's "GTAP" model, the range today for corn ethanol is minus 9 to minus 23 in terms of lower lifecycle emissions than gasoline.

Tom Darlington has studied the international land use change (ILUC) issue and sees what California has done with its low carbon fuels standard as potentially problematic.  Other states are looking to take up the banner on a low carbon fuels standard after California, he noted, saying "I still believe how we do a low carbon fuels standard or RFS2 is a pretty big issue."

"At this point I believe the numbers are not as high as the GTAP model and some of the other models are saying, and I'm not in one camp or the other," Darlington said.  He studied the ILUC issue about a year ago for the Renewable Fuels Association and determined that land use change could indeed be zero.

Darlington believes a higher credit should be given for the ethanol co-product distillers grain, which goes back into the livestock feed market.  He said that other models traditionally believe distillers grain replaces corn on a pound for pound basis, but a new study shows that especially in dairy cattle, swine, and poultry, distillers may replace some soy, too.  One pound of distillers grain replaces nearly 1.3 pounds of corn.  Properly accounting for that soy offset should have a land use change credit, Darlington said. 

When the models are tweaked according to Darlington's recommendations, the outcome is much more favorable for corn ethanol than under the California model, for example.

"Land use modeling is in its infancy," Darlington said.  "Regulations requiring these to be estimated are still far ahead of the models.  We believe there is great risk in making bad decisions, and they may be irreversible."

During the Q&A with the audience, Tyner said he has a couple of issues with Darlington's model, but "we have made tremendous progress in the science.  We're all working to improve all of this stuff."

The California low carbon fuels standard is another question, Tyner said, stating that "it's really tough to create a policy that puts millions of dollars on every percentage point on every different type of fuel."  Measurement becomes absolutely critical, he said, adding that "I don't think we're going to get there," to a point where we can be absolutely certain of each percentage point.